Pi Cycle Top
The crossover of the 111-day moving average and double the 350-day moving average. Has indicated the cycle top with an accuracy of a few days three times in a row.
What the metric shows
Pi Cycle Top is one of the most famous cyclical Bitcoin indicators. When the fast 111-day average crosses the slow 350-day average multiplied by two, the market historically has been just days away from a cycle top. It triggered in 2013, 2017, and 2021.
It should be treated with caution: this is curve-fitting to three observations, there is no statistical significance in such a small sample. However, as a marker that 'the market is in a zone where it has historically been dangerous', it is useful — which is why we show both lines rather than a binary signal.
How it is calculated
How to read the signal
| Zone | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Lines converged | Historically — cycle top within a few days | |
| Gap < 20% | Zone of increased caution | |
| Lines are far apart | No signal |
Frequently Asked Questions
Why exactly 111 and 350?
Selected empirically: 350/111 ≈ π. Hence the name. There is no fundamental justification.
How many times has the indicator been wrong?
There have been no false positives, but there are only three true ones. The sample is too small for conclusions.
Will there be a signal in the next cycle?
Unknown. Cycle amplitudes are decaying, and the lines might simply not converge.