200-Week Moving Average
The 200-week moving average of the BTC price — a level below which the price has never closed a single month in history.
What the metric shows
The 200-week moving average is Bitcoin's most famous 'bottom'. Throughout history, the price has dropped below it only a few times and not for long: in 2015, 2018, and March 2020. Each of these episodes was a point of maximum pessimism and simultaneously the best entry point of the cycle.
The line grows monotonically because it averages almost four years — this makes it a poor tool for entries but an excellent risk benchmark: the further the price is from it, the later the cycle phase.
How it is calculated
How to read the signal
| Zone | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Price at 200W MA level | Historical zone of maximum pessimism | |
| Price 2–4× from 200W MA | Healthy mid-cycle | |
| Price > 5× from 200W MA | Classic top zone |
Frequently Asked Questions
Why 200 weeks and not exactly 4 years?
208 weeks = 4 years, but the industry tradition is precisely 200; the rounding caught on from the stock market.
Has the price ever consolidated below it?
No. There were wicks on the daily/weekly timeframes, but there has never been a monthly close below this line.
Is this the same as the Rainbow Chart?
The Rainbow is a logarithmic regression with color bands; the 200W MA is simply one average. The idea is similar, but the math is different.