MVRV Z-Score
How far market cap has diverged from realized cap, in standard deviations. One of the most accurate cycle top/bottom metrics.
What the metric shows
MVRV Z-Score normalizes the gap between market and realized cap by its standard deviation. This removes scale and makes cycles across different years comparable.
Historically, values above ~7 marked cycle-top zones (extreme overvaluation), and below ~0.1 marked bottom zones, when the market traded near the cost basis of coins. It's a slow (daily) metric — a strategic, not a trading, signal.
How it is calculated
How to read the signal
| Zone | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| > 7 | Historic overheating — cycle-top zone | |
| 3 … 7 | Elevated valuation — caution | |
| 0.1 … 3 | Neutral zone | |
| < 0.1 | Undervalued — cycle-bottom zone |
Frequently Asked Questions
How is it different from plain MVRV?
The Z-Score divides the gap by the standard deviation of cap — so extremes across cycles become comparable instead of blowing up in later cycles.
Is it a trading signal?
No, it's strategic. It works on a scale of months, marking overheating/bottom phases rather than entry points.