NUPL — Net Unrealized P&L
What share of the market sits in unrealized profit. An emotion map: from capitulation to euphoria.
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Optimism / hope
What the metric shows
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) shows what percentage of market cap is unrealized profit. Positive = the market is in profit, negative = most are underwater.
Zones are classically read as crowd emotions: above 0.75 is euphoria (historic tops), below 0 is capitulation (historic bottoms). Derived from MVRV, so it's daily and slow — a strategic sentiment barometer.
How it is calculated
NUPL = (Market Cap − Realized Cap) / Market Cap = 1 − 1/MVRV
How to read the signal
| Zone | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| > 0.75 | Euphoria / greed — historic tops | |
| 0.5 … 0.75 | Belief — late-stage optimism | |
| 0 … 0.5 | Optimism / hope | |
| < 0 | Capitulation / fear — historic bottoms |
Frequently Asked Questions
How is it different from MVRV?
Same family: NUPL = 1 − 1/MVRV. NUPL is handier because it's expressed as a profit share (0…1) with an intuitive emotion scale.
Why does the sub-zero zone matter?
When most coins are underwater, there's no one left to sell — historically these are accumulation phases.